Media

Update: June 30, 2026

Overview

The north star goals for the primary are that Bill Hill is the top non-incumbent vote getter in the Primary election and moves on to the general with no Democratic candidates.

All Persuadable Likely-Primary Voters need to see on linear, digital, via texting, and in the mail about Bill’s Broadly Targeted Message (background and core priorities). 

Additionally, Democratic Likely Primary Voters need to see on digital, texting and in the mail Progressive Messaging (about Bill’s viability and confirmation of his progressive values). 

TARGETS

There are two tracks of voters who need to see Bill’s message: 

All Persuadable Likely-Primary Voters: 

• Any voter registered Democrat, Undeclared, Nonpartisan
• Voting in at least one of the 2022 or 2024 primaries or 2022 special primary.
• Excluding men with a VCI or ideology score below 40
• New registrants who are likely to cast a ballot in the 2026 primary

Democratic Likely-Primary Voters

• Any voter registered as a Democrat
• Voting in at least one of the 2022 or 2024 primaries or 2022 special primary
• New registrants who are registered Democrats and are likely to cast a ballot in the 2026 primary

MESSAGING

Broadly Targeted Messaging should continue to focus on:

Bill’s bio:

• Alaska Native commercial fisherman and school teacher
• Born and raised in rural Alaska, grew up hunting, fishing and raising sled teams
• Key images: hunting, fishing, working, interacting with people in rural Alaska, Alaska Native heritage.

Bill’s viability:

• Only candidate who has earned the endorsements of Alaska’s labor unions
• Polling shows that Bill is the only candidate who can beat Nick Begich
• Sample bio + viability message: Bill Hill is a teacher and commercial fisherman from Bristol Bay. As an Alaska Native, an independent, and a working man who grew up hunting, fishing, and racing sled dog teams, Bill represents the real Alaska. Bill Hill has earned the endorsements of Alaska’s labor unions, has raised more money than any other challenger, and is the only candidate polling shows can beat Nick Begich. He is the only candidate who can realistically defeat Nick Begich and flip this seat. In Congress, Bill will fight back against corruption and stand up to the billionaires who have rigged the system against us so that we can actually fund our schools and lower the cost of gas and groceries.

Bill’s priorities:

• Bill Hill ran for office because billionaires and corporations are making record profits while Alaska’s schools are crippled by inflation and costs for Alaska’s working families are going through the roof. 
  • Stop the corruption, ban stock trading by members of Congress…
  • Make billionaires and corporations pay their fair share…
  • So we can fund our schools 
  • And bring down costs for Alaska’s working families.
    

Progressive Messaging

When discussing Bill’s viability: 

Pre-primary viability messaging should focus on: 

• Campaign momentum (polling, fundraising, statewide travel)
• Progressive endorsements
• Candidate strength, Bill’s ability to bring together the winning coalition
• Why it is critical to flip this seat

Pre-Primary viability messaging should NOT focus on: 

• The value of running as an independent
• The failures of both parties / voter frustration with both parties  
• An implied weakness of the Democratic Party/brand. 

Top messages for Democrats include 

• Corruption/costs
• School funding
• Abortion 
• Messaging like: “Self-serving politicians like Nick Begich are rubber stamping Trump’s tariffs, wars, and cuts that are raising the cost of groceries and fuel in Alaska, all while billionaires get richer and richer. Bill Hill will always fight for Alaskans. That means fighting back against attacks on abortion, public education, and affordable health care, and against the tariffs and wars that have made life even more expensive in Alaska.”  

Secondary messages 

• Resources allowing, other effective messages include cracking down on trawl bycatch, stopping the Pebble Mine, and protecting our fish.

RESOURCE ALLOCATION TRACK 1: All Persuadable likely-Primary Voters

Mail is important relative to linear 

• All Persuadable Likely-Primary Voters should receive at least one mail piece per week, starting ASAP and running all the way to the primary (including weeks 2 and 1), introducing Bill’s bio, viability, and priorities. While voters may not rate viability as a top message, split sampling shows that Bill’s bio with the right viability message wins Bill significant support. 
  • Absentee-by-mail voters in the primary should see at least one additional persuasive mail piece that is timed to drop simultaneously with the Alaska Division of Elections’ release of absentee ballots —on or before July 24th 
    • These messages should be sent to the mailing addresses specified on the voter’s absentee ballot request. 

Digital 

• All Persuadable Likely-Primary Voters should continue to receive messaging on OTT/CTV, YouTube, Google Search, Streaming Audio,and Meta from Weeks 10-1. Resources should predominantly go towards nonskippable video ads. 

 Linear

• Once digital and mail messaging is resourced, voters should receive Broadly Targeted Messaging on broadcast, cable, and radio from Weeks 5-1.
• It is important to prioritize the Southeast media market in linear messaging and not skip over it. (Southeast is a small media market but overrepresented in persuadable primary voteshare.) 

Texting

• Persuadable likely-primary voters, particularly Democrats, should continue to receive weekly texts from weeks 10-1 linking to videos of Bill and why he’s running, media coverage about his candidacy, and polling, endorsements, or other data points that demonstrate that Bill is the only viable candidate that can beat Begich.

RESOURCE ALLOCATION TRACK 2: Democratic Likely-Primary Voters

Mail

• Democratic Likely-Primary Voters should receive at least three additional mail messages in weeks 5, 3, and 1 with focuses on, and in the following order:
  • Corruption/Costs: Unrigging a corrupt system to lower costs for working families. Alaskans are struggling with high prices, and Trump’s tariffs and war are just making it worse. Bill will fight back against the corruption that is boosting corporate profits on the backs of working people.
  • Schools: Solving Alaska’s school funding crisis by making billionaires and corporations pay their fair share.
  • Abortion: standing up to Federal administration efforts to roll back abortion rights, featuring Bill’s quote that “old men in DC should not be making decisions about an Alaska woman’s right to access abortion.” 

(The above messages to Democrats should also invoke Trump and Begich when appropriate.) 

Digital 

• These Democratic likely-primary voters receive messaging on platforms where individual targeting is possible (OTT/CTV) from Weeks 6-1 amplifying the same Progressive Messaging, including invoking Trump and Begich when appropriate. Resources should predominantly go towards nonskippable video ads. 

OTHER NOTES

Polling:

• Pundits and stakeholders should see tracking polling before week 3 updating on the status of the race.

Other Opportunities:

• There may be opportunities to weaken Nick Begich via messaging that broadly criticizes elite families that have taken control of our political system. 
• There may be opportunities to broadly advocate for authentic Alaska candidates of all parties relative to outsiders.

Background context about running on school funding as a Federal candidate: 

• From year to year, the Federal government contributes 11-13% of total K-12 public education funding in the country, representing hundreds of billions of dollars. 
• That proportion is higher in lower-income and more rural school districts, meaning Federal funding is a higher proportion of education funding in Alaska, and substantially higher in rural Alaska. 
• Federal funding is also more elastic than state and local funding, and less susceptible to oil price shocks in a state like Alaska, meaning an increase in Federal education funding is one of the largest available levers to significantly increase Alaska’s public education funding base.
  
• Billions of dollars are left on the table every year in tax reductions for billionaires and corporations, in addition to the money wasted on foreign wars and other kleptocratic stuff, that could otherwise be going to public school funding support for states.